Should climate change affect your travel plans?

The future has arrived; you’re already living in it. At least as far as climate predictions from 25 to 30 years ago are concerned. We are now experiencing many of the changes that were forecast back in the 90s and early 2000s.

Many of these forecasts were very accurate: heatwaves and wildfires in southern Europe now regularly disrupt peak summer months, ski areas below 1500m are often struggling, and northern European destinations are benefiting from warmer summers but are also prone to floods and damaging storms. I think we all understand that short-term weather is highly unpredictable and always has been, so how best to adapt to these changing patterns?

We have all seen the headlines of this summer (and previous ones) in Europe, where Mediterranean Europe has sweltered through heatwaves that sent locals and visitors scrambling to find shade and air-con in the summer months. Western Europe as a whole saw its warmest June on record and the highest sea surface temperatures were recorded in the Mediterranean, which also contributed to the heatwaves on land. At the same time, parts of Northern and Western Europe saw some below-average temperatures, so it becomes a more nuanced picture than just the headlines might suggest. (I was in the UK in May and June, and there was definitely no heatwave going on there at that time – it felt colder than the Victorian winter I’d just left!)

Statistics can leave us feeling detached and often don’t mean much on their own but last year provided a very personal example of what extreme weather impacts can mean. The death of popular TV doctor Michael Mosley from suspected heatstroke after a walk in 40°C temperatures on the Greek island of Symi caused world headlines, with many people shocked that such an expert in bodily science as Mosley could be caught out and undone on a walk back to his accommodation. It illustrated all too clearly and tragically the dangers of being active in extreme heat.

So what does this mean for today’s traveller, especially walkers who are more prone to the effects of extreme weather than other types of visitors?  The popularity of Europe as a destination is not likely to diminish, but the patterns are definitely starting to shift, presenting new opportunities:

Shoulder season travel

At RAW we have always favoured people travelling in the shoulder seasons of April to early June and September to early November for many of our destinations in Southern Europe. Now that it’s becoming a definite popular trend, it will be harder to secure accommodations along some routes unless you book many months ahead, ideally in the year before. We are seeing pressure build on our popular Camino routes in these shoulder months, so forward booking is essential; the earlier the better. It’s still the best choice for those Southern European routes, and it’s our company policy to now advise against travel in the peak summer months of July and August on the inland Caminos ( the Coastal routes do offer some relief from the heat).

Cooler climate destinations

The lure of Northern Europe is getting stronger: The UK, Ireland, Scandinavia, Poland, the Baltic states and mountain regions are becoming more attractive with more predictable cooler climates in the summer that favour walkers.

Of course, this is a generalisation and you always have to prepare for outside the norm weather patterns. For instance, April saw 30°C temperatures this year in Manchester, while May and early June were much cooler. Norway, Sweden and Finland have historically cooler climates but were hit by soaring temperatures this summer, including a record run of 22 days above 30°C in Finland. So while Northern destinations can often offer an escape from heat unpredictability is the real truth and still has to be factored into your plans.

Japan has risen tremendously in popularity in recent years as a destination for walkers, offering fantastic cool climate shoulder season walking (but their hot sticky summers should be avoided) and other worldwide destinations like Canada, South Africa, and the Andes offer overseas alternatives to European summer trips.

European island walks

If your plans don’t allow for shifting months (teachers and school holidays for instance) there are Atlantic island destinations such as Madeira and the Azores, The Shetlands, Hebrides, Faroe Islands and Iceland that offer stable and cooler temperatures in the summer months; Madeira for instance, despite its southerly location off North Africa, has a surprisingly cool climate: August is the hottest month with an average temperature of 23°C and the coldest is January at 16°C with the most daily sunshine hours, so its a perfect destination for walking year round. The Atlantic provides a cooling effect on all these islands even when it’s hot on mainland Europe.

On the day

So what happens when you do encounter these extreme weather days despite all your careful planning? I spent 25 years leading people on walks and treks around the world, sometimes encountering extreme temperatures in many different climates. (Those extreme weather days also happened when I led trips in the 90s!) As a trip leader, you have to be risk-averse and manage your clients’ exposure to activity in extreme weather. If you had a choice, you’d skip some days, but of course you don’t always have a choice and have to manage as best you can.

That can mean setting out early (like, 5 am early!) on very hot days and finishing up by late morning. Shortening your days and building in stages of vehicle transfer (where that option exists), sometimes staying put and waiting till the worst of a bad storm passes. Making sure you have the right gear for the forecast conditions, which can make a huge difference and have communications and a ‘plan B’ (and C) if things get too much.

Finding out about the trail ahead, does shade and shelter exist along the route, is there an exit option? Always listening to local alerts and taking notice any advice issued by authorities. Don’t walk in extreme heatwaves, storms, typhoons etc. Your safety is more valuable than anything you’ll gain on the trail. Accept what you can’t control and make the best of what your situation offers – a chance to read that book you’ve been carrying but can never find time for.

Pick the temperature, not the month

Plan for the season you want to feel, not the page of the calendar. Think about the temperatures that you feel most and least comfortable walking in and aim for that, understanding that you will always get hotter or colder variations on those stated averages and be comfortable with that!

Build some flexibility and rest days into your schedule. While it’s not possible to change a whole series of accommodations at short notice, having more rest days built in allows you recovery time from when temperatures are less than ideal and your body has more strain coping.

Adventure Travel has always had an unpredictable element to it; it’s what provides the adventure after all. We leave home to escape routines, so an attitude of adaptability has always been essential to enjoying adventures on the road. Climate change adds another element of unpredictability into our travel plans but not one that need put us off travelling.

Further reading

See also: How to stay safe while hiking, which includes more information about heatwaves and high temperatures. If you have any questions or concerns, our destination experts are here to help.